A Look at the Final Four
Thu at 22:49pm on Feb 25th, 2010
With two days and three games to go in Olympic hockey, it’s time to take a quick look at the four remaining teams. I gave up making predictions after Slovakia beat Sweden, but here’s what I’m going to do. For each team, I’ll discuss why it might win--and why it might not. You can reach your own conclusion.
The United States: Why They Can Win It
1. Ryan Miller. Miller has carried Team USA up to this point, and there's no reason why he can't continue to do so. He is fulfilling his lifelong dream to play in the Olympics--his cousin's appearance in the 1988 Calgary games inspired him--and he played as well as he did with the Buffalo Sabres earlier this year to guarantee the starting job in Vancouver. Now that he has it, he'll come through in the clutch.
2. The Bottom Six. Every remaining team has All Stars on its top line. Canada has four lines of All Stars. The USA, though, built a real team, opting for two scoring lines, a defense-first line and a tough-as-nails fourth line. No other contender has the hitting up front the US has, and Ryan Kesler and Chris Drury have already limited Canada's offense once this Olympiad.
Why They Might Not
1. The Defense. Ryan Whitney and Jack Johnson love to pinch in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, they love to do it nearly every play. While Ryan Miller bailed out a US defense that gave up too many odd-man chances in the preliminary round, all it takes is one average performance by the Michigan native--not even bad, just mediocre--to eliminate the Americans.
2. Canadian Revenge. It's tough to beat Canada once. It's tougher to beat them twice. Should they meet for gold, the Canadians will have Roberto Luongo in goal. In his home rink. In his home country.
Canada: Why They Can Win It
1. The Sharks Line. Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley form a rare Olympic line that has experience playing together. Most Americans have had less than two weeks to get to know each other, but this all-San Jose line has played together all year. Heatley has four goals and three assists in five Olympic games.
2. The Other Three Lines. Jarome Iginla has five goals already this tournament. Jonathan Toews has seven points. I haven't even mentioned Sidney Crosby yet. Good thing the Americans brought as many checking forwards as they did--they will need every one of them in a possible rematch against Canada.
3. The Home Crowd. I can barely hear the announcing crew when I'm watching a Canada game on television. It seems the crowd supplies Canada with enough energy to play two games. Did you see the jump they had to start against Russia?
Why They Might Not
1. Inconsistency. You never know which Canada is going to show up: the one that scores seven on Russia or the one that can't finish off Switzerland in regulation. The inconsistency goes back to past Olympics. They won gold in '02 and followed it up with a stinker in Torino. If they hype themselves up for a possible rematch against the US too soon, Slovakia could upset them. (The same goes for the US, who should worry about Finland before thinking about Crosby.)
Slovakia: Why They Can Win It
1. Momentum. It's why the Oilers made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006. It's why the Florida Marlins pull a World Series out of nowhere every eight years or so. It's why I know where George Mason is. Sweden was a team as talented as Canada. Sure, another upset seems unlikely, but that's why they play the game.
Why They Might Not
1. The Let Down. Maybe I'm only saying this because I'm listening to Radiohead right now, but Slovakia's fans are due for a let down game. The team already topped its best Olympic performance ever (5th at Torino), and it might content itself a little too much with that fact. It's a sports cliché, but Slovakia's "just glad to be there." It's like the first game back after a long road trip. You'd think the home team would come out firing, but all too often it's just happy to be home.
Finland: Why They Can Win It
1. The System. Scandinavia churns out defensively-aware players like no one else. When Finland's on its game, scoring on Miikka Kiprusoff sounds like a fantasy. Kiprusoff has a goals-against average of 0.33 in Leijonat victories.
2. The History. Finland's a soundly-coached team that's well put-together at every position. Historically speaking, Finland knows how to win at the Olympics, medaling in four of the last six Olympiads. That's not bad for a team with very few recognizable stars.
Why They Might Not
1. The Matchup. I've always considered Finland to be Sweden Lite. They defend well and play stellar in goal but in the end don't have the firepower that the Swedish Sedin twins or Henrik Zetterberg brings (that explains why Sweden shut out Finland earlier this week and also beat them for gold in '06). The United States poses the same problems for Finland that Sweden does. They have a great mix of scoring, checking and hockey sense up front. They have one of the best goaltenders in the world. They forecheck and hit like the Finns do--except better. As good as Finland is, the team simply doesn't have enough skill to stop the United States and Canada from meeting up again on Sunday afternoon.
The United States: Now the Favorite for Gold?
Mon at 22:23pm on Feb 22nd, 2010
<p>
The playoff round begins today, which means four teams will go home without a medal by the end of the day. For the complete bracket, go <a href="http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-hockey/schedule-and-results/men_ihm400000vm_playoff-dE.html">here</a>.</p>
<p>
Though the headlines Monday read “USA shocks Canada” and all that jazz, the real news is all about the seeding. Because <a href="http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/assetid=d28c5c66-fc4c-40d6-972a-4024ef5f8458.html#goals+game">the United States knocked off its neighbors to the north</a> and Sweden only beat Finland by three, the Americans received the top seed in the bracket. The result: an outlandishly easy schedule as far as an Olympics goes.</p>
<p>
They first face the winner of Tuesday’s Switzerland-Belarus game. The United States already beat Switzerland last week, and the quarter finals game will take place 24 hours after the play-in game—so the Swiss (or the Belarusians) will be tired.</p>
<p>
Barring a string of Latvian upsets, the United States then plays the winner of Finland-Czech Republic. They aren’t pushovers, no, but compared to the path in the other half of the bracket, it’s smooth sailing for the United States as long as Ryan Miller continues to play well.</p>
<p>
Meanwhile, Canada, Russia and Sweden will battle each other just for a medal. The game Wednesday between the Canadians and the Russians—yeah, yeah, assuming Canada beats Germany—sounds like a gold medal game. Instead, it's a quarter finals game, and the loser will finish no higher than fifth. And unless Sweden stumbles against the winner of Slovakia-Norway, Canada/Russia then has to take on a Swedish contingent that has two shutouts in three games.</p>
<p>
I know, I know. My podium prediction was Canada with the gold, Sweden with the silver and Russia with the bronze. That’s already impossible. It’s possible only one of the three earns a medal at all. Who knew Russia’s defense would hurt th—oh, well, I guess we sort of did see that one coming. But what about the Canadians?</p>
<p>
Some of the blame for the Sunday's loss to America fell on goaltender Martin Brodeur, as Roberto Luongo will start against Germany and presumably down the road. The Canadians hope the Vancouver goaltender can carry his country to gold in his home arena. But let’s not forget Canada’s most likely opponent in the gold medal game: the United States. Maybe things will be different for the Canadians the second time around.</p>
Russia Stumbles, Canada Squeaks by
Fri at 23:59pm on Feb 19th, 2010
I’ll start with Russia. It took all of two games for a team to shut down the Russians, though the Slovaks relied on the hot goaltending of Jaroslav Halak to do it. Nonetheless, allowing 33 shots on goal to Slovakia isn’t acceptable for a Russian team that wants to contend for gold.
The 2-1 loss to the Slovaks doesn’t mean it’s panic time, though. It’s just the preliminary round, a round where most good teams hit a bump or two. Still, there are two developments of note from the Slovakia game.
First, what goaltender will start for Russia against the Czechs on Sunday? Though Evgeni Nabokov wasn’t bad against Latvia, Ilya Bryzgalov was a bright spot against Slovakia. Maybe the Russians would be better served to start Bryzgalov down the road.
Second, why did Russian coach Vyacheslav Bykov use Alex Ovechkin three times in the shootout? He scored just once in six NHL shootout attempts this year. Pavel Datsyuk, meanwhile, is 6-for-11 this season. I doubt a shootout will ultimately decide Russia’s fate, but I hope Bykov makes better decisions in the medal round than he did against Slovakia.
As I said, though, it’s not time to worry yet. Look at Canada: it barely escaped Switzerland, the nation they lost to in ’06. This is not women’s hockey, where 13-0 isn’t even the biggest blowout of the tournament. Teams on the men’s side are more competitive. Sweden’s closer-than-expected games against Belarus and Germany shouldn’t degrade the Swedes—it just shows the talent teams like Belarus and Germany have (by the way, I said before that Germany left Jochen Hecht off its roster. The team has since added him).
And if the games yesterday and today have been close, the games Sunday will be even closer. Russia-Czech Republic, Canada-USA and Finland-Sweden back-to-back-to-back: who isn’t excited? The hype around the Battle of North America has already started. American fans are resting their hopes on Ryan Miller, while Canadian fans are taunting right back.
If we’re lucky, they won’t just play Sunday—they’ll meet again in the medal round.
Favorites Start Strong in Vancouver
Wed at 22:18pm on Feb 17th, 2010
Two days into Olympic men’s hockey and we’re still looking for the first upset of the tournament. The top five teams (Canada, Russia, US, Finland and Sweden) all won.
Norway hung with Canada—for a period. There was some Internet banter arguing that Team Norge showed how to beat the Canadians, but I don’t buy it. It was the first period together for most of the Team Canada, and it still badly outplayed Norway. Is it any surprise that the Sharks trio of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley was the best line? Also, anybody who believes Norway provided the key to Canada’s demise is ignoring the 8-0 final score.
The United States, like Canada, will need the preliminary round to get to know each other. Most players just flew into Vancouver after NHL games over the weekend. The team will improve as familiarity increases. If Switzerland meets the US again in 10 days, it won’t be only 3-1.
One team I do worry about is Russia. Yeah, they won 8-2 against Latvia, but at some point they will have to play defense. At one point yesterday, the team had Maxim Afinogenov and Ilya Kovalchuk, two defense-inept forwards, on the penalty kill. Had Latvia capitalized on its chances in the first half of the game (a game that was well worth staying up late to watch), the game could have been interesting. I still think Russia gets upset by a defense-first, possibly-Scandinavian squad down the road.
In case you missed it, here’s Niklas Hagman’s goal against Germany and some beauties from Tuesday.
You very well may have missed it, since NBC’s coverage of hockey has been spotty. I ranted in Monday's paper about the network's decision to air ice dancing over hockey, and one day later women’s curling preempted the start of Canada-Norway. But hopefully NBC straightens everything out so we can watch our hockey.
The One-Stop Olympic Ice Hockey Preview
Wed at 22:15pm on Feb 10th, 2010
With less than two days until the Olympics officially begin, it’s time for a crash course in everything Olympic men's ice hockey. With this little (well, not so little) cheat sheet, hopefully you’ll be able to impress your friends with knowledge of Swiss goaltending and the spelling of Kostyuchenok.
GROUP A
Canada
Rick Nash - Sidney Crosby - Jarome Iginla
Patrick Marleau - Joe Thornton - Dany Heatley
Eric Staal - Ryan Getzlaf - Corey Perry
Brenden Morrow - Mike Richards - Jonathan Toews
Patrice Bergeron
Chris Pronger - Dan Boyle
Scott Niedermayer - Shea Weber
Duncan Keith - Brent Seabrook
Drew Doughty
Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo
Marc-André Fleury
Fast facts: Canada won gold in 2002, snapping a 50-year dry spell. Anything less than gold for the host nation will be a big disappointment. Russia upset the Canadian team in the quarterfinals in Torino, knocking them out of medal contention. Canada also lost to Switzerland in ‘06, and it plays the Swiss again this year in the round robin, along with the US and Norway. Roster snubs include Martin St. Louis and Jay Bouwmeester. There are several sets of NHL teammates on the team. Most notable is the possible all-San Jose line of Marleau, Thornton and Heatley.
Outlook: gold contender
Prediction: gold
Norway
Patrick Thoresen - Tore Vikingstad - Per-Åge Skrøder
Mats Zuccarello Aasen - Anders Bastiansen - Morten Ask
Mathis Olimb - Mads Hansen - Marius Holtet
Lars Erik Spets - Kristian Forsberg - Martin Røymark
Martin Laumann Ylven
Ole Kristian Tollefsen - Jonas Holøs
Tommy Jakobsen - Mats Trygg
Juha Kaunismäki - Alexander Bonsaksen
Lars Erik Lund
Ruben Smith
Pål Grotnes
Andre Lysenstøen
Fast facts: Thoresen and Tollefsen are the only two NHLers on the team. Most are Norwegian league veterans. File Aasen under “good players you’ve never heard of”—he had over a point per game in the Swedish Elite League. In goal, Smith had a 2.34 goals-against average and a .922 save percentage for Eliteserien, but the young goalie has no North American experience. This is the nation’s tenth Olympic appearance, and its first since 1994. An upset of Canada or the United States would be momentous for the Norwegians. Also, don’t ask how I got the slash through the o.
Outlook: heavy underdog
Prediction: 10th
Switzerland
Roman Wick - Sandy Jeannin - Andres Ambühl
Hnat Domenichelli - Raffaele Sannitz - Julien Sprunger
Thibaut Monnet - Martin Plüss - Ivo Rüthemann
Thierry Paterlini - Kevin Romy - Thomas Déruns
Mark Streit - Severin Blindenbacher
Roman Josi - Mathias Seger
Rafael Diaz - Yannick Weber
Goran Bezina
Injured: Luca Sbisa
Jonas Hiller
Martin Gerber
Tobias Stephan
Fast facts: The Swiss upset both Canada and the Czech Republic in Torino, shockingly making the quarterfinals before falling to eventual champion Sweden. Goaltending is the strength for the Swiss, with Anaheim Ducks starter Jonas Hiller in net. Paul DiPietro, the Canadian-born Swiss citizen who scored both goals in the team’s upset over Canada, was left off the roster this time around, as was first overall draft bust Alexandre Daigle, who’s had a nice career overseas recently.
Outlook: underdog
Prediction: eighth
United States
Zach Parise - Paul Stastny - Patrick Kane
Phil Kessel - Joe Pavelski - Bobby Ryan
Dustin Brown - Ryan Kesler - Jamie Langenbrunner
Ryan Malone - Chris Drury - Ryan Callahan
David Backes
Brian Rafalski - Erik Johnson
Brooks Orpik - Ryan Suter
Ryan Whitney - Jack Johnson
Tim Gleason
Ryan Miller
Jonathan Quick
Tim Thomas
Fast facts: The United States assembled a "real" team of two scoring lines and a checking bottom six, as opposed to Canada’s four all-star lines. Injuries have already hit the defense—Ryan Whitney and Tim Gleason are in for Mike Komisarek and Paul Martin. If the team wants to earn a medal, it will have to do it through the goaltending of Ryan Miller. The offense simply isn’t powerful enough to run-and-gun with Russia or Canada.
Outlook: medal contender
Prediction: fourth
GROUP B
Czech Republic
Petr Cajanek - Tomas Plekanec - Jaromir Jagr
Patrik Elias - David Krejci - Martin Havlat
Milan Michalek - Tomas Rolinek - Martin Erat
Roman Cervenka - Josef Vasicek - Tomas Fleischmann
Tomas Kaberle - Jan Hejda
Marek Zidlicky - Zbynek Michalek
Pavel Kubina - Roman Polak
Filip Kuba, Miroslav Blaťak
Tomas Vokoun
Ondrej Pavelec
Jakub Stepanek
Fast facts: The Czechs are often the forgotten team, but they have the talent to compete for a medal, maybe even gold. Vokoun has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season, and the team has plenty of goal-scoring—especially with the return of Jaromir Jagr to North American ice. The defense doesn’t have many top-end blueliners, but there aren’t any glaring holes. The Czechs won bronze in Torino.
Outlook: medal contender
Prediction: sixth
Slovakia
Marián Gáborík - Pavol Demitra - Marián Hossa
Miroslav Šatan - Jozef Stümpel - Žigmund Pálffy
Richard Zedník - Michal Handzuš - Marcel Hossa
Tomáš Kopecký - Ľuboš Bartečko - Branko Radivojevič
Martin Cibák
Zdeno Chára - Andrej Meszároš
Ľubomír Višňovský - Andrej Sekera
Martin Štrbák - Milan Jurčina
Richard Lintner
Jaroslav Halák
Peter Budaj
Rastislav Staňa
Fast facts: The other half of the former Czechoslovakia features an aging lineup of ex-NHLers, including Plaffy and Stumpel. Though the Bruins recently signed Satan, he was not under contract with any team when the Slovaks named him to the team—a very puzzling move. Slovakia will need all-world goaltending and plenty of goals from its top two lines if it wants to nudge itself onto the podium.
Outlook: medal contender
Prediction: seventh
Latvia
Forwards
Lauris Dārziņš - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Herberts Vasiļjevs Krefeld Penguins (DEL)
Miķelis Rēdlihs - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Ģirts Ankipāns - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Mārtiņš Cipulis - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Jānis Sprukts - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Aleksejs Širokovs - Amur (KHL)
Mārtiņš Karsums - Norfolk (AHL)
Aleksandrs Ņiživijs - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Armands Bērziņš - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Kaspars Daugaviņš - Binghamton (AHL)
Gints Meija - Dinamo Riga (KHL).
Defense
Georgijs Pujacs - Sibir (KHL)
Kristaps Sotnieks - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Arvīds Reķis - Wolfsburg Grizzly Adams (DEL)
Krišjānis Rēdlihs - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Guntis Galviņš - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Rodrigo Laviņš - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Kārlis Skrastiņš - Dallas Stars (NHL)
Oskars Bārtulis - Philadelphia Flyers (NHL)
Goaltenders
Edgars Masaļskis - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Ervīns Muštukovs - Dinamo Riga (KHL)
Sergejs Naumovs - FA
Fast facts: Latvia’s Olympic team for years was highlighted by goaltender Arturs Irbe, who refused to buy new pads and instead hand-repaired his one white pair until they looked like this. Irbe, though, retired in 2008, and Latvia is now without its most dynamic personality. As a result, there isn’t much buzz around this team—so little that I couldn’t find a projected lineup.
Outlook: heavy underdog
Prediction: 12th
Russia
Alexander Ovechkin – Evgeni Malkin – Alexander Semin
Ilya Kovalchuk – Pavel Datsyuk – Maxim Afinogenov
Danis Zaripov – Sergei Fedorov – Alexander Radulov
Sergei Zinoviev – Alexei Morozov - Viktor Kozlov
Andrei Markov – Anton Volchenkov
Sergei Gonchar – Denis Grebeshkov
Alexander Nikulin – Dmitri Kalinin
Egveni Nabokov
Ilya Bryzgalov
Semyon Varamov
Fast facts: Russia stunned Canada in the quarterfinals in 2006, and this Olympiad’s team is just as explosive. Just look at those top two lines. Defense is the weak spot—“Dmitri Kalinin” and “Olympian” should not go together—but the Russians hope it can cover the hole up with plenty of scoring. I don’t think this team can roll all the way to gold, as somebody will shut them down, but win or lose they’ll be fun to watch.
Outlook: gold contender
Prediction: bronze
GROUP C
Belarus
Sergei Kostitsyn - Alexei Kalyuzhny - Andrei Kostitsyn
Alexei Ugarov - Mikhail Grabovski - Konstantin Koltsov
Alexander Kulakov - Andrei Mikhalev - Oleg Antonenko
Sergei Demagin - Sergei Zadelenov – Andrei Stas
Ruslan Salei - Viktor Kostyuchenok
Vladimir Denisov - Andrei Antonov
Vadim Sushko - Andrei Bashko
Nikolai Stasenko, Alexander Syrei
Andrei Mezin
Vitali Koval
Maxim Malyutin
Fast facts: Belarus upset Sweden in 2002 on its way to fourth at Salt Lake, but the team followed it up with a “did not qualify” in 2006. One interesting side story is the intra-team rivalry between the Kostitsyn brothers and Grabovski that began when all three played from Montreal, a rivalry that resulted in Grabovski being traded to Toronto.
Outlook: heavy underdog
Prediction: 11th
Finland
Antti Miettinen - Mikko Koivu – Tuomo Ruutu
Jere Lehtinen - Saku Koivu – Teemu Selänne
Niklas Hagman – Olli Jokinen – Valtteri Filppula
Ville Peltonen – Niko Kapanen - Jarkko Ruutu
Jarkko Immonen
Sami Salo – Toni Lydman
Joni Pitkanen – Kimmo Timonen
Sami Lepisto – Janne Niskala
Lasse Kukkonen
Miikka Kiprusoff
Niklas Bäckström
Antero Niittymäki
Fast facts: Finland’s a tough team that should do well on the NHL-sized ice surface used at these Olympics. The country’s been a goaltending factory recently—NHL goals-against average leader Antti Niemi didn’t even make the team. The Finns play its arch-rival Sweden Feb. 21 in a must-watch game. The team lost to Sweden in the Torino gold medal game.
Outlook: medal contender
Prediction: fifth
Germany
Marco Sturm - Marcel Goc - Michael Wolf
Philip Gogulla - Alexander Barta - John Tripp
Sven Felski - Marcel Müller - Manuel Klinge
Thomas Greilinger - TJ Mulock - André Rankel
Christian Ehrhoff - Dennis Seidenberg
Korbinian Holzer - Alexander Sulzer
Jakub Ficenec - Chris Schmidt
Jason Holland, Michael Bakos
Thomas Greiss
Dimitri Pätzold
Dennis Endras
Fast facts: Uwe Krupp made some interesting decisions when selecting his Olympians. Germany had played well in international play, so Krupp left off several German NHLers and kept the roster as it was. Don’t change a winning lineup, Krupp thinks—even if you’re about to play defending champion Sweden. Notable snubs are NHLers Jochen Hecht and Christoph Schubert.
Outlook: underdog
Prediction: ninth
Sweden
Loui Eriksson - Henrik Zetterberg - Daniel Alfredsson
Mattias Weinhandl - Henrik Sedin - Daniel Sedin
Patric Hörnqvist - Nicklas Bäckström - Peter Forsberg
Tomas Holmström - Samuel Påhlsson - Fredrik Modin
Nicklas Lidström – Niklas Kronwall
Henrik Tallinder – Mattias Öhlund
Johnny Oduya – Douglas Murray
Tobias Enström, Magnus Johansson
Henrik Lundqvist
Jonas Gustavssson
Stefan Liv
Fast facts: Sweden is the Detroit Red Wings of international play, which makes sense because the team features several Wings. Sweden is defensively sound, with great goaltending and all-around talent up front. This may be your last chance to watch Peter Forsberg as well, as the Swedes try to defend its Torino gold.
Outlook: gold contender
Prediction: silver
When hockey starts up on Monday, I’ll be your go to source for everything Vancouver. I’ll probably write daily recaps (or almost-daily recaps) of the action on the ice, pointing out things I noticed, previewing the next day’s games and fun things like that.
For the complete ice hockey schedule, click here.
GREG'S BLOG ARCHIVE
- February 2010 (7)
- January 2010 (4)
- December 2009 (1)
- November 2009 (4)
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